Dynamic Infrastructure Interdependency Simulation & Analysis (DIISA)
DIISA analysts use system dynamics modeling to quantify and evaluate the effects of infrastructures and their interdependencies on supply and demand under different conditions (e.g., time of day, time of year, unusual event, terrorist threat, natural disaster, new regulations, incentives, market structures).
Dynamic simulation modeling allows analysts to identify:
- Quantified consequences for evaluating risks
- Limiting factors under different, ambient conditions, hypothetical events and policies
- Effects of alternative transport routes or modes, system redundancies, and product and/or equipment inventories
- Potential magnitude, location and timing of disruptions that propagate to
- other infrastructures and regions
- Positive and negative effects created by interdependencies and their net effect on supply/demand balance
Scenario Analysis Project
The DIISA team works with industry, DHS, and its partners to identify infrastructure security and disruption issues for analysis. The results of previous analyses, historical and current events are also used to identify areas of concern for project analysis. Yearly lists of proposed analyses and detailed project plans are presented to DHS for review and prioritization.
While this project is led by the DIISA team, the best available tools throughout NISAC are used to perform the analyses to the level of detail necessary to support decision making.
Previous scenario analyses have included:
- Influenza: simulation of vaccination rates, vaccine effectiveness, influenza strain virulence, and effects on public health and other infrastructures
- Crude Oil Supply Disruption: analysis of the effects of tightening of the international crude oil market and loss of import capacity.
- Banking & Finance: analysis of timing, magnitude, distribution and duration of potential economic impacts and propagating effects for identified disruption scenarios.
- Post-Katrina/Rita Analysis: compared the analysis results to actual damages and recovery. This report provides an indication of the quality and utility of the hurricane analyses and identifies requirements for models and analysis scope that will improve the fast-turnaround reports.
- 2006 Pre-Hurricane Analyses: identification of 5 high-risk hurricane scenarios and analysis of the potential physical, social and economic impacts of hurricane damage for those scenarios and regions.
- Policy and Scenario Analyses of:
- Natural gas supply redundancies
- EHV transformer reserves
- Pharmaceuticals stockpiles
- Refined Petroleum Product reserves
In 2007, the DIISA team is leading analyses on a New Madrid Earthquake, Chemical Chokepoints, and Dam Failure. In addition, DIISA will work with the FAST team as needed, and contribute to a Bridge Interdependency Analysis and the NISAC / CIPDSS joint Phase 2 Pandemic Influenza Analysis.
Simulators developed by the DIISA team include:
