Scott Ferson

Select Recent Publications

RAMAS Risk Calc: Risk Assessment with Uncertain Numbers. Lewis Press, Boca Raton, Florida, 2002 (to appear), (S. Ferson).

Quantitative Methods for Conservation Biology, Springer-Verlag, New York, 2000 (S. Ferson and M. Burgman, eds.)

Risk Assessment in Conservation Biology. Chapman & Hall, London, 1993 (M. Burgman, S. Ferson and H.R. Akçakaya)

Journal Publications:

“Temporal variability and ignorance in Monte Carlo contaminant bioaccumulation models: a case study with selenium in Mytilus edulis,”Risk Analysis 21: 383-394, 2001 (M. Spencer, N.S. Fisher, W.-X. Wang, S. Ferson).

“Constrained mathematics for calculating logical safety and reliability probabilities with uncertain inputs,”Journal of System Safety 36: 23- 29, 2000 (J.A. Cooper, S. Ferson and D.K. Cooper).

“Automated quality assurance checks on model structure in ecological risk assessments,”Human and Environmental Risk Assessment 2:558-569, 1996 (S. Ferson).

“What Monte Carlo methods cannot do,”Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 2:990-1007, 1996 (S. Ferson).

“Different methods are needed to propagate ignorance and variability,”Reliability Engineering and Systems Safety 54:133-144, 1996 (S. Ferson and L.R. Ginzburg).

“Hybrid processing of stochastic and subjective uncertainty data,”Risk Analysis 16: 785-791, 1996 (J.A. Cooper, S. Ferson and L.R. Ginzburg).

“Judgment under uncertainty: evolution may not favor a probabilistic calculus,”Behavioral and Brain Sciences 19: 24f, 1996 (L.R. Ginzburg, C. Janson, and S. Ferson).

“Correlations, dependency bounds and extinction risks,”Biological Conservation 73:101-105, 1995 (S. Ferson and M. Burgman).

Book Chapters and Conference Papers:

“Probability bounds analysis solves the problem of incomplete specification in probabilistic risk and safety assessements,”Risk-Based Decision Making in Water Resources IX, Y.Y. Haimes, D.A. Moser and E.Z. Stakhiv (eds.), American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston, Virginia, page 173-188, 2001 (S. Ferson).

“Variability and measurement error in extinction risk analysis: the northern spotted owl on the Olympic Peninsula,”Pages 169-187 in Quantitative Methods for Conservation Biology, S. Ferson and M. Burgman (eds.), Springer-Verlag, New York, 2000 (L. Goldwasser, L. Ginzburg and S. Ferson).

“RAMAS Risk Calc: a microcomputer environment for probabilistic arithmetic,”Page 1188-1194 in Proceedings of Probabilistic Safety Assessment ÿ99. American Nuclear Society, LaGrange Park, Illinois, 1999 (S. Ferson).

“Quality assurance for probabilistic safety assessments,”Pages 1284-1288 in Proceedings of Probabilistic Safety Assessment ÿ99. American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park, Illinois, 1999 (S. Ferson).

“Probability bounds analysis,”pp. 1203-1208 in Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, A. Mosleh and R.A. Bari (eds.), Springer-Verlag, New York, 1998 (S. Ferson and S. Donald).

“Deconvolution can reduce uncertainty in risk analyses,”Risk Assessment: Measurement and Logic, M. Newman and C. Strojan (eds.), Ann Arbor Press, 1997 (S. Ferson and T.F. Long).

“Probability bounds analysis software,”Computing in Environmental Resource Management. Proceedings of the Conference, A. Gertler (ed.), Air and Waste Management Association and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. pp. 669-678, 1997 (S. Ferson).

“Reliable calculation in probabilistic logic: accounting for small sample size and model uncertainty,”Intelligent Systems: A Semiotic Perspective, NIST, Gaithersburg, Maryland. pp. 115-121, 1996 (S. Ferson).

“Quality assurance for Monte Carlo risk assessments,”Proceedings of the 1995 Joint ISUMA/NAFIPS Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, IEEE Computer Society Press, Los Alamitos, California, pp. 14-19, 1995 (S. Ferson).

“Hybrid arithmetic,”Proceedings of the 1995 Joint ISUMA/NAFIPS Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, IEEE Computer Society Press, Los Alamitos, California, pp. 619-623, 1995 (S. Ferson and L. Ginzburg).

“Using approximate deconvolution to estimate cleanup targets in probabilistic risk analyses,”pages 239-248 in Hydrocarbon Contaminated Soils, P. Kostecki (ed). Amherst Scientific Press, Amherst, Massachusetts, 1995 (S. Ferson).

“Conservative uncertainty propagation in environmental risk assessments,”Environmental Toxicology and Risk Assessment, Third Volume, ASTM STP 1218, J.S. Hughes, G.R. Biddinger and E. Mones (eds.), American Society for Testing and Materials, Philadelphia, pp. 97-110, 1995 (S. Ferson and T.F. Long).

“Naive Monte Carlo methods yield dangerous underestimates of tail probabilities,”Proceedings of the High Consequence Operations Safety Symposium, Sandia National Laboratories, SAND94-2364, J.A. Cooper (ed.), pp. 507-514, 1994 (S. Ferson).