Strategic-Planning Exercise

Scenario-Based Planning: Strengthening U.S. Defenses against Cyber Attacks through Technical Advances

Facilitators:
Dr. Michael Nacht, Thomas and Alison Schneider Professor of Public Policy at the University of California, Berkeley

Dr. Susanna Gordon, manager of the Systems Analytics Department at Sandia National Laboratories

None of us are clairvoyant, yet policy-making and applied technology development are largely exercises in prediction. We ultimately adopt policy "x" with the expectation that "b" will result. Systematic thinking about future scenarios and their consequences is thus a valuable exercise in national-security research to flesh out plausible alternative futures, leading to the articulation of effective contingency plans, even if they don't play out exactly as envisioned.

As General Eisenhower is purported to have said, "Military plans are not worth that much, but military planning is invaluable." Since the 1970s, scenario-based planning, best developed by a group at Shell Oil to govern decisions on huge investments to dig for oil and gas, has become a staple of many organizations including top U.S. corporations. Today, the Department of Defense routinely engages in "red teaming," where small groups examine proposed decisions to determine how alternative scenarios could affect the outcome.

Cyber security is a growing technical and policy field, one of the few in U.S. national security expected to claim substantial increases in Congressionally approved budgetary support over the next several years. The application of rapidly developing technology is providing both enormous improvements in modern life and unprecedented opportunities for those who wish to create mischief or do harm (e.g., individual hackers, organized criminal groups, terrorist organizations, and national governments) to attack core elements that govern contemporary life. Air traffic control systems, electric power grids, and financial and health care systems are all vulnerable to disruption. In the military sphere, intelligence and early warning systems, armed forces communications, and design information on advanced weapon systems are all subject to cyber penetration. Moreover, as evidenced by Russian behavior in Georgia in 2008, cyber attacks may be the first acts of war to disable the adversary's communication system prior to military invasion.

All students will participate in this strategic-planning exercise to discuss technical advances and capabilities that should be pursued to strengthen U.S. defenses against cyber attacks.