Surety risk assessment technology development focuses on the safety, integrity, and assured use of the nation's nuclear deterrent capability. Historically, nuclear weapon detonation safety has been assured using a unique principle-based design approach. Because of our long history in evaluating risk from nuclear power plant operations, we have combined power plant risk-assessment techniques with principle-based design techniques to more fully understand both the risks presented by nuclear weapons and the actions that may be taken to further lessen risk. To do this we had to substantially modify classical approaches. In the process, we developed additional technical capabilities suited to assessing nuclear weapon surety.
Weapon-system risk assessment requires the integrated efforts of a variety of disciplines that provide an understanding of military operations, weapon design, the possibility of accidents, the physical response of a weapon system to accident environments, and the consequences of an accident. An interdisciplinary approach to risk assessment involves teams of weapon designers, including those who design nuclear explosives; safety engineers; systems analysts; thermal, structural and electrical engineers; consequence experts; and those skilled at assembling the diverse elements together into a coherent picture of risk. Data are provided by design and numerical simulation organizations and generated in some of Sandia's unique test facilities, in order to better understand component and weapon response under abnormal conditions.
Sandia is pioneering the application of new risk assessment technologies to the area of inadvertent nuclear detonation. Risk assessment technology is developed and applied concurrently, so that approaches may be evaluated realistically. Thus, the enduring nuclear weapon stockpile is systematically evaluated, and the techniques are applied to the operations associated with dismantlement of weapons. At the same time, we are aggressively improving our methods in order to broaden the scope of investigations and to increase confidence in the results.
Future Work
Particular methodological challenges include development of fast-running models of a weapon's physical response to abnormal environments. These models must capture the essential behavior of the system while meeting the demands for the many scenarios considered in a weapon risk assessment. In addition, we are developing techniques for optimizing the search for particular conditions leading to very rare events and studying the applications of risk assessment to high-consequence national security risks.
For further information, contact:
David D. Carlson
Sandia National Laboratories, MS-0405
Albuquerque, NM 87185-0405
Phone: (505) 844-8497
e-mail: ddcarls@sandia.gov
Submitted October 1996 Layout design by Wanda Mar.
Submitted October 1996