Modeling Tribal Leadership Dynamics: An Opinion Dynamics Model of Pashtun Leadership Selection

Pashtuns are the largest tribal group in Afghanistan. In traditional Pashtun society, leadership is manifested as an informal power system where potential leaders gain and maintain their position by means of group consensus. Leadership power is spread over three areas of influence resulting in a triad of leadership roles. These leaders compete, vying for power and control based on public opinion. The addition of extremists into this system (who utilize threats of harm to gain power) disrupts the traditional system, altering the balance of power.

Background

Publications

• Modeling Tribal Leadership Dynamics: An Opinion Dynamics Model of Pashtun Leadership Selection, Janis L. Schubert, Thomas W. Moore, Patrick D. Finley, Ryan Hammer, Robert J. Glass, Sandia National Laboratories report, October 2011 (2012-0511)