Application: Tobacco Control Policy

Tobacco products are responsible for more than 440,000 deaths each year. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) report that approximately 46 million U.S. adults smoke cigarettes in the United States, even though this behavior will result in death or disability for half of all regular users. Paralleling this enormous health burden is the economic burden of tobacco use, which is estimated to total $193 billion annually in medical expenditures and lost productivity due to premature death. Curbing the significant adverse consequences of tobacco use is one of the most important public health goals of our time.

The tobacco products system is a composed of highly connected and interdependent subsystems, comprising industry, consumers, government, health care, and both public and government interest groups. These subsystems are connected by complex technical, social and economic ties. The system as a whole exhibits properties associated with complex adaptive system behavior.

Background

Publications

• Using Opinion Dynamics to Model Addictive Behaviors, Thomas W. Moore (Sandia National Laboratories), Patrick D. Finley (Sandia National Laboratories), Benjamin J. Apelberg (US Food & Drug Administration), Bridget K. Ambrose (US Food & Drug Administration), Nancy S. Brodsky (Sandia National Laboratories), Theresa J. Brown (Sandia National Laboratories), Corrine Husten (US Food & Drug Administration), Robert J. Glass (Sandia National Laboratories), Physica A (submitted 10/4/2012) (SAND2012-7512 J)

• An Agent-Based Approach for Modeling Population Behavior and Health with Application to Tobacco Use, Stephen J. Verzi, Nancy S. Brodsky, Theresa J. Brown, Alexander V. Outkin
  Aldo A. Zagonel, Robert J. Glass, Sandia National Laboratories report, September 2012 (2012-6898)

• 29th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 2011, Washington, DC

• Developing a theory of the societal lifecycle of cigarette smoking: Explaining and anticipating trends using information feedback

• 8th International Conference on Complex Systems, June 2011, Quincy, MA (ICCS 2011 Proceedings available for download)

• Extending Opinion Dynamics to Model Public Health Problems and the Evaluation of Policy Interventions
• Application of a Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems Analysis Approach to Tobacco Products

• 2010 Conference on Modeling for Public Health Action: From Epidemiology to Operations, Centers for Disease Control & Preparedness, December 2010, Atlanta, GA

• Developing a theory of the societal lifecycle of cigarette smoking: Explaining and anticipating trends using information feedback