Roadmap

Quantitative analysis is being applied to CASoS primarily through incremental adjustments to current theory and analysis tools. The sheer complexity of CASoS, the subtlety of their adaptive behaviors, the difficulty of running experiments and the problems of integrating the different analytic frameworks and representations required to understand their component systems underscores the need for new theory, methods and practice. However, this larger field is currently poorly understood, far from integrated and lacks consistent foundational theory or approaches for either discovery or application.

Sandia leadership commissioned a Roadmap for pursuing CASoS Engineering (2007-2008) in which we first articulated a set of Defining Examples for a broad spectrum of CASoS to verify our assumption of underlying commonalities. A presentation developed as an invitation to the roadmap illustrates the CASoS engineering approach as implemented in real time on Pandemic Influenza to demonstrate what a CASoS is, how problems can be defined and solved within CASoS and the use of CASoS principles to actualize solutions.

We identified theoretical principles and an iterative adaptive structure for actualizing solutions influencing CASoS. This envisioned structure is composed of a set of five continuously expanding critical components:

• Theory: generic, applicable to the seemingly disparate problems that share the deep structure of CASoS

  • Conceptual Modeling and Representation (system identification)

  • Analysis and Computational Simulation

  • Integration of a variety of ideas from sub-disciplines such as non-equilibrium thermodynamics that include self-organization, adaptation, networks, robustness / fragility / resiliency

  • Design and Control: approaches to encourage or eliminate complex and/or chaotic behavior, depending on design requirements

  • Ongoing efforts by a multidisciplinary community of scientists, engineers, applied mathematicians, social scientists, epistemologists and other specialists

• Experiment: approaches, systems, and test-beds for both discovery and the testing of theory

• Environment for data analysis and computational simulation

• Applications for a wide range of partners that pull rather than push the Theory, Experiment and Environment

• Reflexive Management of the Initiative as a CASoS

The goals for this roadmap were to:

• Define CASoS as a subject of engineering study, determine the nature of theory and practice
  required to address CASoS issues and actualize solutions; demonstrate that many of our
  current and future challenges center on CASoS; and confirm that these are and will be the problems of importance crosscutting the Laboratories together with academia; state; national; and international governments; and industries

• Summarize the current state of CASoS research and practice

• In context of CASoS problems, create a vision for:

  • Research/Develoment and Application "structure" with core R&D supporting spin-off applications in new
    areas

  • Integration of dispersed internal capabilities and external collaborations in R&D&A into
    this structure

• Plot a path forward to achieve our vision that will engage and excite Sandia's management, researchers and staff as well as external collaborators and funding sources

Defining scientific terms for an emerging field is surprisingly difficult. We developd our shared understanding through the use of ordinary language, metaphor, analogy and social interaction, but the formal definitions that are our goal must be expressed in terms that transcend cultural idioms and individual ambiguities.

Our approach to defining CASoS was to compile a small set of examples we agreed were CASoS and then draw a working definition out of their common qualities. This definition went beyond essential qualities to encompass the activities necessary to define CASoS as a field of scientific or engineering study, the actualization of engineered solutions within CASoS (getting them used) and the requirements (theories, technologies, tools and approaches) for enabling the influence of CASoS. These Defining Examples cover many of the nation's (and humanity's) most important current and future concerns.

The Roadmap also identifies theoretical principles and iterative adaptive structure we envision for actualizing solutions influencing CASoS. In response to the Roadmap, we have created the Phoenix Pilot to begin building the discipline of CASoS Engineering within Sandia.