CASoS Engineering
Sandia National Laboratories
Casos Engineering Lead:
Theresa J. Brown
 

Who We Are: SNL CASoS Core Group


A core group of Sandia National Laboratories scientists and engineers started investigating complex systems literature across many domains in 2003 and initiated complex adaptive systems analyses the following year. This group began formally developing the theoretical bases of the CASoS Engineering Initiative in 2006. Some early adopters have moved on to carry the conceptual seeds into the larger Sandia population, to other disciplines and program areas. Others have joined the initiative bringing new perspectives and skill sets to continue the evolution of this problem definition and solution design process. Teams form and reform in response to project characteristics.

Retired SNL Senior Scientist Dr. Robert J. Glass initiated the 2003 investigation into complexity and complex adaptive systems which he then evolved into the Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems (CASoS) Engineering Initiative. Email; webpage.

Theresa Brown serves as both the Program Director and the Applications Lead for the Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems (CASoS) Engineering program. She is a Distinguished Member of Technical Staff at Sandia National Laboratories and the Science Advisor for the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) work at Sandia. Her technical expertise is in conceptual model development and decision-making under uncertainty using vulnerability and risk analyses and probabilistic performance assessments. While at Sandia, this expertise has been applied to infrastructure interdependencies vulnerability assessment, probabilistic performance assessments of radioactive waste disposal sites for the Department of Energy, risk assessment methodology development and analyses for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Short CV; Email; Theresa's web page

Arlo Ames is a Distinguished Member of Technical Staff in Analytics and Cryptography at Sandia National Laboratories. He has specialized in control systems theory, optimization, and computer-aided engineering, and currently focuses on devising an approach to creating engineered changes to complex adaptive dynamical systems of systems, critical infrastructure modeling, and verification and validation of human, social, cultural and behavioral models. He holds bachelor’s and master’s degrees in mechanical engineering from Brigham Young University, where he emphasized control systems theory, optimization, and computer-aided engineering. Resume; Email

George Backus conducts systems research, development and analysis in Discrete Mathematics and Complex Systems at Sandia National Laboratories. CV and bio coming soon. Email

Mike Bernard is a Principal Member of Technical Staff in Information and Cognitive Sciences at Sandia National Laboratories. An applied, experimental psychologist, Michael’s work mainly involves the development of psychological and neurocognitive models of individual and group decision-making. Currently, he directs several research and development projects that seek to model human decision-making and behaviors of individuals, groups, and countries around the globe. Michael has contributed to over 80 articles as well as reports on numerous technical advances in the field of human factors, general psychology, and group decision-making. Email

Walt Beyeler is a Principal Member of Technical Staff in Policy and Decision Analytics at Sandia National Laboratories. His work has evolved from developing models of groundwater flow and transport for the US Geological Survey, to using those models to assess performance of radioactive waste disposal systems, to developing models of transport processes for use in decision-making. These applications presented the common challenge of evaluating decisions in the face of large uncertainty about system behavior and parameters. His most recent work is in developing models of complex systems for use in understanding their failure modes and designing control and mitigation strategies. Focus areas include banking and finance, agricultural supply networks, and energy production and distribution. Resume coming soon; Email

Nancy Brodsky is a Distinguished Member of Technical Staff in Resilience and Regulatory Effects at Sandia National Laboratories. She currently leads the Tobacco Control Project which is developing a modeling framework for analysis of the potential impacts of possible policy decisions. Most recently, she served as the lead for the Sandia NISAC Fast Analysis and Simulation team, responding to information requests from DHS and DOE pertaining to immediate potential threats to infrastructure and population. Her background is in the physical sciences, geophysics and rock mechanics, and she has and extensive experience in both performing and supervising technical work in regulatory environments such as the Yucca Mountain and Waste Isolation Pilot Plant projects. Resume; Short CV; Email; Nancy's web page

Steve Conrad manages the Resilience and Regulatory Effects department at Sandia National Laboratories. He develops computer simulation tools to analyze the consequences of disruptive events on the nation's critical infrastructures. Currently, Steve is the project lead to develop a risk assessment approach for protecting food supply chains against deliberate contamination by a malevolent adversary. He has developed models of security dynamics related to the insider threat and is currently collaborating with analysts at Argonne National Lab to develop a model for TSA related to improving their airport security checkpoint operations. Short Bio; Email

Curtis Cooper is a Senior Member of Technical Staff in Systems Research, Analysis, and Applications at Sandia National Laboratories. He received a B. A. in Physics from Cornell University in 1999 and a Ph. D. in Planetary Science from the University of Arizona in 2006. Although his academic background is in astrophysics, over the past five years he has focused more on computer science and software engineering. He helps develop and maintain several CASoS codes and leads the common-utilities initiative. His primary research interests are in network theory, graph algorithms, measuring complexity in complex adaptive systems, and modeling systems with intelligent agents. Email

Tom Corbet is a Principal Member of Technical Staff in Policy and Decision Analytics at Sandia National Laboratories. Resume coming soon; Email

Mercy Berman DeMenno is a Member of Technical Staff in the Systems Research, Analysis and Applications department at Sandia National Laboratories. She brings her background in political science, management, and public policy to support CASoS Engineering projects for the Veterans Health Administration and the Food and Drug Administration with a focus on technical policy analysis and regulatory science. Email

Mark Ehlen is a Member of Technical Staff in Infrastructure and Economic Systems Analysis at Sandia National Laboratories and Chief Economist of the National Infrastructure Simulation & Analysis Center (NISAC) at Sandia. He is primary architect of the NISAC Agent-Based Laboratory for Economics (N-ABLE), a large-scale economic complex adaptive system suite developed at Sandia. Mark has expertise in theoretical mesoeconomics and application of these theories. Resume coming soon; Email

Leland Brooks Evans is a Member of Technical Staff in the Systems Research, Analysis, and Applications department at Sandia National Laboratories. His work supports the Pandemic Influenza, Tobacco Control Policy and Veterans Health Administration projects. Email

Patrick Finley is a Principal Member of Technical Staff at Sandia National Laboratories in Computer Science Research and Development. In the commercial software arena, he has developed large engineering analysis systems currently used by a variety of Fortune 500 firms and government agencies. At Sandia, he designs and codes complex adaptive system models, develops experimental design protocols, integrates High Performance Computing (HPC) resources, and has developed innovative approaches to uncertainty quantification. Resume coming soon; Email

John Hellier is a Principal Member of Technical Staff at Sandia National Laboratores in Systems Research, Analysis, and Applications. He has leveraged his degrees in Economics, Computer Science, Information Systems, and Medical Informatics to develop Risk Management applications in support of projects across Sandia.  John has many years of professional software development experience with companies including Cisco Systems and Incyte Genomics. Resume coming soon; Email

Paul Kaplan is a Senior Member of Technical Staff in Policy and Decision Analytics at Sandia National Laboratories. Resume coming soon; Email

Stephen Kleban manages the Systems Research, Analysis, and Applications department at Sandia National Laboratories. As a computer scientist, he has published in a number of areas including complex systems and analysis, optimization, knowledge-based reasoning systems, collaborative systems, computer security, and distributed computer architectures. Currently, the Systems Research department he manages addresses complex adaptive systems problems from data management through the end state of an analysis product. Through involvement with the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC), his staff has performed modeling and analysis of numerous complex adaptive systems resulting in national level impact. Some of his staff are also involved in rapid analysis activities for the Department of Homeland Security that contribute to national level decisions. CV coming soon; Email

Greg Lambert is Member of Technical Staff in the Systems Research, Analysis and Applications department at Sandia National Laboratories. His work in uncertainty/sensitivity analysis for population structure models and time series data structures contributes to the Tobacco Control Policy project. Greg also contributes to the Veterans Healthcare Administration project through statistical social network analysis and meta-analysis research for system modeling. He hold an MS in Statistics from the University of New Mexico. Email

Craig Lawton conducts research, development and analysis in System Readiness and Sustainment Technologies at Sandia National Laboratories. Resume and bio coming soon. Email

Louise Maffitt is a senior research associate in the Energetic Materials Research and Technology Center (EMRTC) at New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology working full time with Sandia National Laboratories' decision support, risk analysis, and infrastructure simulation and analysis teams since 1994. She provides constructive review, technical writing, and conceptual design for information architecture and graphical representation. Resume; Email; Louise's web page

Michael Mitchell is a programming and analysis specialist in Systems Research, Analysis, and Applications at Sandia National Laboratories. Resume coming soon; Email

Thomas Moore is a Senior Member of Technical Staff in Systems Research, Analysis, and Applications at Sandia National Laboratories specializing in complexity theory and agent-based modeling of social networks. His current work in complex systems modeling and analysis builds upon extensive experience in software design and development in domains ranging from an agent-based artificial intelligence framework for next generation application integration software to semantic infrastructure exploitation capabilities, micro-agent architecture systems for modeling intelligent emergent behavior, and stochastic algorithms for the simulation of biochemical networks and analysis of network architecture on input/output mapping functions.   At Sandia, Tom has designed and co-developed agent-based simulation software for the analysis of robustness in public health systems against threats ranging from natural disasters to evolving population health profiles and epidemics. He is also the designer and co-developer of simulation software for analyzing tobacco-related behaviors in social networks using opinion dynamics and social network analysis. His research interests include theoretical biology; automated trading algorithms; complex adaptive systems; simulation and artificial life; evolutionary systems; patterns-based software development; and agile software development techniques. Resume; Email

Alexander (Sasha) Outkin is a Principal member of Technical Staff in Resilience and Regulatory Effects at Sandia National Laboratories. He has more than 10 years of experience in economic and financial modeling and project leadership that includes original work in such areas as agent-based and microstructure modeling of financial markets, network and game-theoretic modeling, as well as economic and financial impacts modeling for NISAC while at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Sasha graduated from Moscow State University with an M.S. in theoretical physics and from Virginia Tech with a Ph.D. in Economics. While studying theoretical physics he developed an interest in complex self-organizing systems that lead to his Ph.D. dissertation addressing the emergence of cooperation in a network of locally interacting agents and expanded game theory in the domain of evolving, non-equilibrium systems. His earlier work in agent-based and microstructure modeling of the NASDAQ stock market and of the individual market-making strategies successfully predicted important market changes ahead of the decimalization implementation. This work became the basis of a book written with Vince Darley on NASDAQ microstructure  and agent-based modeling (A NASDAQ Market Simulation: Insights on a Major Market from the Science of Complex Adaptive Systems, World Scientific Publishing. March 2007). CV coming soon; Email

Vince Tidwell is a Distinguished Member of Technical Staff in Earth Systems and Analysis at Sandia National Laboratories. Resume and bio coming soon; Email

Vanessa Vargas is a Member of Technical Staff in Resilience and Regulatory Effects at Sandia National Laboratories. Resume coming soon; Email

Steve Verzi is a Principal Member of Technical Staff in Systems Research, Analysis, and Applications at Sandia National Laboratories specializing in neural networks, machine learning, intelligent systems, cognitive science and algorithm design and analysis. Stephen has also taught Pattern Recognition, Introduction to Information Theory, Software Design and Mathematical Foundations of Computing at the University of New Mexico as an adjunct professor. Resume; Biosketch; Email

Eric Vugrin is a Distinguished Member of the Technical Staff in the Resilience and Regulatory Effects Department at Sandia National Laboratories. His primary research interest is the development of analytical tools and methods for infrastructure analysis. Most recently, his research has focused on capability development for vulnerability, consequence, and resilience analysis of chemical supply chains, transportation networks, electrical power systems, and other infrastructure networks. These efforts have provided support and guidance to a number of U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) Infrastructure Protection, Science and Technology, and Policy programs. Of recent note, his technical expertise was requested for the development of a resilience certification program for commercial buildings. As part of the team that developed the Canary event detection software, Dr. Vugrin received a 2010 R&D 100 Award, recognizing Canary as one of the 100 most technologically significant new products of the year. Previous to his work in the area of infrastructure analysis, he performed risk analyses for complex systems as the technical lead for Total Systems Performance Assessment at Sandia for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, the world’s only certified, operating deep underground repository for nuclear waste. Dr. Vugrin earned his Ph.D. in mathematics from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University in Blacksburg, Virginia. His graduate work on optimal control systems inspired his infrastructure resilience research. Resume coming soon; Email

Students

Matthew Antognoli is a graduate student in Computer Science at the University of New Mexico. He is currently a software engineer for the Research and Exchange Dynamics project working on the Exchange Model, a hybrid complex adaptive system (CAS) and system dynamics (SD) model for studying economic exchange processes. Matthew also uses the model to study nation state interaction for the Global Security project. Past work includes contributions to the Population Health Infection model for the Pandemic Influenza project. Email

Taylor Berger is an undergraduate in Computer Science at the University of New Mexico. He is a member of the Systems Research, Analysis and Applications department at Sandia National Laboratories. He currently works with Tom Moore and Pat Finley on the Tobacco Control Policy project as well as the Veterans Healthcare Adminstration project. Email

Joe Collard is an undergraduate in Computer Science and Music at the University of New Mexico. He is a member of the Systems Research, Analysis and Applications department at Sandia National Laboratories. His work contributes to the Discrete-Event Population Structure Model (DEPSM) for the Tobacco Control Policy project. In the past he contributed to the Diffusion among Cognitively Complex Agents (DACCA) Tobacco sub-project. Email

Jacob Hobbs is an undergraduate in Computer Science at the University of New Mexico. He is a member of the Systems Research, Analysis and Applications department at Sandia National Laboratories. His past and current work has been on the Pandemic Influenza model and the Retail Payment Systems, Tobacco Control Policy and Resource and Exchange Dynamics projects. Email

Braeton James Smith is a graduate student in Economics at Oregon State University. He is a member of the Infrastructure and Economic Systems Analysis department at Sandia National Laboratories. Email

Ezra Stallings is an undergraduate at the University of New Mexico studying Computer Science and Interdisciplinary Film & Digital Media. A member of the Systems Research, Analysis and Applications department at Sandia National Laboratories, Ezra works with the social network analysis and opinion dynamics modeling team contributing to the Tobacco Control Policy project. Email

Sharon Sullivan is an undergraduate in Applied Mathematics at the University of New Mexico. She is a member of the Systems Research, Analysis and Applications department at Sandia National Laboratories. She has contributed to numerous CASoS projects including Visualization Environment for Globally Adaptive Systems (VEGAS), Pandemic Influenza, Economic Data Investigations, Climate Security Impacts and Tobacco Control Policy. CV, Email

Erinn Tibbs is an undergraduate studying professional writing and literature at the University of New Mexico. A member of the Systems Research, Analysis and Applications department at Sandia National Laboratories, Erinn provides bibliographic research and technical writing support for several CASoS projects as well as maintaining a reference library for the program. Email

Craig Vineyard is a graduate student in Computer Engineering at the University of New Mexico. He is a member of the Cognitive Modeling department at Sandia National Laboratories. Craig’s work contributes to the Tobacco Control Policy project, both in the Diffusion among Cognitively Complex Agents (DACCA) and Discrete-Event Population Structure Model (DEPSM) sub-projects. Email

Emeritus

Robert J. Glass, retired Senior Scientist from Sandia National Laboratories, founded then directed the Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems (CASoS) Engineering Initiative 2008 through 2013. Dr. Glass has degrees from Haverford College (BS, Ecology) and Cornell University (MS and PhD, Agricultural and Biological Engineering). He worked for many years in the general field of Subsurface Science where his discoveries of phenomena and creation of new modeling approaches influenced problems ranging from water and contaminant transport in fractured rock (e.g., Yucca Mountain, Nevada) to the remediation of aquifers contaminated with Dense Non-Aqueous Phase Liquids (DNAPL such as TEC and PCE). Joining the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC, a joint program between Sandia and Los Alamos National Laboratories for the Department of Homeland Security) in 2004, Dr. Glass has grown a research team that focuses on the analysis and control of CASoS as embodied by many critical infrastructures and socio-economic-technical systems. Short CV, Long CV; Email; Bob's web page

George Barr is an Emeritus Member of Technical Staff in Systems Research, Analysis, & Applications at Sandia National Laboratories. Resume coming soon. Email

Richard Colbaugh, a Distinguished Member of the Technical Staff at Sandia National Laboratories, retired at the end of 2013. Prior to joining Sandia, Rich held a joint appointment as Professor and Chief Scientist at the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology. His research activities focus on modeling, analyzing, predicting, and influencing the dynamics of social and technological networks, with a recent emphasis on prediction and influence in the presence of intelligent, adaptive adversaries. This work has been recognized through research and best paper awards from NASA, DoD, DOE, ASME, IEEE, ACM, SIAM, AACC, and SCI. Immediately after September 11, 2001 Rich spent three years in Washington, DC advising DoD senior leadership on counterterrorism efforts.

Rich Detry is a member of technical staff in Computer Software Research and Development Department at Sandia National Laboratories. He has over 20 years of computer science and software development experience in diverse domains including signal processing, collaborative systems, computer security, distributed computing, expert systems, and modeling and simulation. Resume coming soon; Email

John M. Linebarger is member of technical staff in Telemetry and Data Systems at Sandia National Laboratories. He has 30 years of experience in the areas of distributed systems, collaborative virtual environments, semantic technologies, cognitive systems, complex systems, and modeling and simulation. His degrees include an MBA from New York University, an MS in Computer Science from the University of New Mexico, and a PhD in Computer Science from Lehigh University. Dr. Linebarger is a member of IEEE and the ACM. CV; Email

Kristen Glass

Chrysm Watson Ross

Roger Mitchell

P. Sue Downes

Tu-Tach Quach

Geoffrey E. Reedy

Eric D. Russell

Shirley J. Starks

Daniel J. Sunderland

Aldo A. Zagonel

CASoS Web Contact