Application: Pandemic Influenza Containment Strategy

In the event that a new influenza strain emerges, an effective vaccine would not be available for six to nine months, ample time for the new strain to spread globally.  New, adaptable strategies that are robust to uncertainty must be developed to contain potential influenza pandemics until a vaccine is available. In our effort to engineer optimal community-level containment strategies to control pandemic influenza, we developed a community-level model of disease spread from individual scale up through multiple, linked social networks. The strategic approaches that emerged from our analyses became the cornerstone of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC's) policy for community response to potential pandemic influenza strains.

Background

Publications

• 2010 Conference on Modeling for Public Health Action: From Epidemiology to Operations, Centers for Disease Control & Preparedness. Atlanta, GA. December 2010

• The Effect of Healthcare Environments on a Pandemic Influenza Outbreak, Victoria J. Davey, Daniel C. Cannon and Robert J. Glass (presentation)

• Loki-Infect 3: A Portable Networked Agent Model for Designing Community-Level Containment Strategies, Jacob A. Hobbs, Daniel C. Cannon, Leland B. Evans, Victoria J. Davey and Robert J. Glass (presentation)

• A Complex Adaptive Systems Modeling Framework for Public Health Action Exemplified by the Veterans Affairs Modeling Object Oriented Simulation Environment, Thomas W. Moore, John M. Linebarger, Patrick D. Finley, Roger Mitchell, Walter E. Beyeler, Victoria J. Davey and Robert J. Glass (presentation)

• 2010 VHA Comprehensive Emergency Management Program Evaluation and Research Conference. Baltimore, MD. May 2010

• Defining & Evaluating Threats and Designing Mitigation Strategies for VA Healthcare, Robert J. Glass, Thomas W. Moore, Walter E. Beyeler, Arlo L. Ames, S. Louise Maffitt, Patrick D. Finley, Ronald Norby and Victoria J. Davey (2010-8359 C) (presentation)

• Infectious Disease Modeling Meeting (IDMM), Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, Department of Defense Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (DoD-GEIS) Operations, and Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. Laure, MD. January 2010

• Effects of Healthcare Sites on Community Pandemic Influenza Transmission and Mitigation, Victoria J. Davey, Daniel C. Cannon and Robert J. Glass (2010-8560 C) (presentation)

• Health Outcomes and Costs of Community Mitigation Strategies for an Influenza Pandemic in the United States, Daniella J. Perlroth, Robert J. Glass, Victoria J. Davey, Daniel C. Cannon, Alan M. Garber, and Douglas K. Owens. Clinical Infectious Diseases, vol. 50, no. 2, p. 165-174. Expedited publication. January 2010 PubMed Summary

• Society for Medical Decision Making 31st Annual Meeting. Los Angeles, CA. October 2009

• Health Outcomes and Costs of Community Mitigation Strategies for an Influenza Pandemic in the U.S, Daniella J. Perlroth, Robert J. Glass, Victoria J. Davey, Alan Garber and Douglas K. Owens (received best of conference award) (presentation)

• Infectious Disease Modeling and Military Readiness, Brian H. Feighner, Stephen Eubank, Robert J. Glass, Victoria J. Davey, Jena-Paul Chretien, and Joel C. Gaydos. Emerging Infectious Diseases, vol. 15, no. 9. September 2009

• Twenty-seventh International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Albuquerque, NM. July 2009

• Pandemic Influenza and Complex Adaptive System of Systems (CASoS) Engineering, Robert J. Glass (2009-6117 C) (paper)

• Effective, Robust Design of Community Mitigation for Pandemic Influenza: A Systematic Examination of Proposed U.S. Guidance, Robert J. Glass, Victoria J. Davey, H. Jason Min, Walter E. Beyeler, and Laura M. Glass. PLoS One, vol. 3, no. 7. July 2008 (2008-0561 J)

• Rescinding Community Mitigation Strategies in an Influenza Pandemic, Victoria J. Davey and Robert J. Glass. Emerging Infectious Diseases, vol. 14, no. 3. March 2008 (2007-4635 J)

• Social contact networks for the spread of pandemic influenza in children and teenagers, Laura M. Glass and Robert J. Glass. BMC Public Health, vol. 8, no. 61. Highly accessed. February 2008 (2007-5152 J)

• Design of Community Containment for Pandemic Influenza with Loki-Infect, Robert J. Glass, Jason Min, Walter E. Beyeler and Laura Glass. Sandia National Laboratories report, October 2007 (2007-1184)

• Targeted Social Distancing Design for Pandemic Influenza, Robert J. Glass, Laura M. Glass, Walter E. Beyeler and H. Jason Min. Emerging Infectious Diseases, vol. 12, no. 11. Expedited publication. November 2006 (2006-6728 C)

• Institute of Medicine of the National Academies: Workshop on Modeling Community Containment Workshop. Washington, DC. October 2006

• Design of Community Containment for Pandemic Influenza, Robert J. Glass, H. Jason Min, Walter E. Beyeler and Laura M. Glass (2006-6728 C) (presentation)

• Local Mitigation Strategies for Pandemic Influenza, Robert J. Glass, Laura M. Glass and Walter E. Beyeler. December 2005 (2005-7955J)