Application Backgound: Global Dynamics of Nuclear Weapon Proliferation

• Goal /Aspiration for Project
• Design nonproliferation strategies capable of influencing the global system of states to limit the spread of nuclear weapons
• Achieve a clear representation of the process of proliferation and the intended (and unintended) impacts of nonproliferation strategies
• Create the ability to predict the likely effectiveness of proposed measures, as well as determine allocation of time and resources among many competing strategies
• Approach/Methods/Models
• Develop a conceptual model of the process of proliferation against which nonproliferation strategies can be assessed, including both processes of acquisition of nuclear weapons and processes that motivate states to seek nuclear weapons.
• Develop simple models of nonproliferation strategies and demonstrate how they impact the process of proliferation.
• Observe the relative impact of different strategies, given hypothetical initial and boundary conditions.
• Recommend additional work to improve the model and make it accessible to the nonproliferation community both for discussion and for testing hypotheses.
• Status, Accomplishments and Next Steps
• Our relatively simple graphical model of nonproliferation highlights that both motivation and capability play an important role in determining whether a state is ultimately successful in acquiring nuclear weapons
  • Future steps will mathematically implement the conceptual model to allow evaluation of the trade-offs between costs and benefits of various strategies. Such a quantitative model will also support uncertainty analysis.
• The relative paucity of nonproliferation strategies aimed at shifting the motivational calculus, especially in a non-coercive manner, suggests that further attention to developing cooperative approaches that reduce motivation is needed.
• Recognizing that security and status are ultimately indicators of an entity's standing in a much broader global regime, it is important to explore how measures outside of the nonproliferation regime itself (e.g., cooperation on trade, economics, environmental issues, etc.) could enhance the regime. One next step is to identify new strategies to strengthen the sense of security and status for members of the nonproliferation regime without needing to acquire nuclear weapons
• CASoS Goals: General Capabilities
• Implementation of graphical conceptual modeling using a systems-dynamic methodology that emphasizes feedbacks forces clarity, can lay assumptions bare, and may yield insights that otherwise might not be apparent.
• Future development of mathematical formulations for the processes represented in the model, including the mechanisms by which nonproliferation strategies impact their rates, will force additional clarity and help assess the benefits of going on to a full mathematical model. Tthe enhanced model could serve as the context for developing an agent-based approach that allows exploration interactions and impacts at the individual nation level.
• Acknowledgements
• This work has been supported by Sandia National Laboratories Laboratory Directed Research and Development