Application Background: Natural Gas Networks

• Goal/Aspiration for Project
• Evaluate potential impacts of disruptions (due to earthquakes in NMSZ) on natural gas supplies (regionally to nationally)
• Approach/Methods/Models
• Simple network flow model was used to estimate disruption consequences, and to place bounds on pipelines capacities using historical flow data
• Network topology is derived directly from industry pipeline location data.  The resulting model network was graphically overlaid on the pipeline network, and the locations and properties were reviewed and verified through GoogleEarth
• Status, Accomplishments and Next Steps
• Completed model testing in 2009
• Preliminary analysis of disruption consequences in 2009 and 2010
• CASoS Goals: General Capabilities
• Allocation model that spreads the shortages among the end users
• Network flow model useful for analyzing other systems constrained by transmission capacity
• CASoS Goals: Other Potential Applications
• Estimating patterns of service interruption arising from diverse causes, such as pipeline explosion or loss of storage
• Estimating consequences of disruptions to international telecommunications cables.
• Acknowledgements
  • This application has been funded by the Department of Homeland Security through the NISAC program in conjunction with analysis of Earthquake Risks in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) to Natural Gas Supplies