Applications: Group Formation and Fragmentation

Illustration of group interconnections

The conceptualization of an agent-based, simulation framework that allows the use and testing of various social and behavioral science approaches for understanding the motivation and intent associated with terrorist activities. The framework design provides a LEGO-style toolbox that can convert sophisticated SME theses on individual and social behavior into computationally tractable, mathematical representations. Through parameterization, the reconfigurable framework can then simulate the dynamics of any particular group or interacting collection of terrorist groups.

Goal /Aspiration for Project

Identify and understand self organized extremist group formation, activation, dissipation. Initialize network representative of community of interest.

Approach/Methods/Models

Step 1: Opinion dynamics: tolerance, growing together, antagonism
Step 2: Implementation of states with different behaviors (active, passive)

Status, Accomplishments and Next Steps

Application: Initialization of network to be representative of community of interest

CASoS Goals: General Capabilities

Condition-dependant, adaptive behavior models; confidence building for these models

Acknowledgements

This work was funded by the Department of Homeland Security Motivation & Intent Thrust Area

Publications

An Agent-Based Model Component to a Framework for the Analysis of Terrorist-Group Dynamics, George A. Backus and Robert J. Glass, February 2006 (2006-0860P)
Growth and Defection in Hierarchical, Synergistic Networks, Mark A. Ehlen and Robert J. Glass, Sandia National Laboratories report, September 2003