Application: Food Defense - Detailed Topological Mapping of Food Supply Chains

The capability to trace contaminated foods forward (to consumers) and backward (to providers) is needed for rapid recalls during biological, chemical or radiological food contamination events resulting from terrorist attacks. The difficulties in adequately characterizing food supply chain topologies present a major uncertainty in conducting risk assessments. Our goal is to develop capabilities that stochastically map food supply chains to support food defense and understand, model and articulate risks. A system-level understanding is necessary because food pathogens traverse multiple parts of the food delivery system.

Background

Challenges

• Supply chain topology varies markedly from one sector to another
• Supplier/customer relationships vary within sectors: some are enduring, others are market-based and highly transitory.
• Iinformation about supplier/customer relationships  is often proprietary and difficult to obtain
• Knowledge about supply chain topology is generally limited to direct supplier and direct customer
• Spot-market relationships are ephemeral as suppliers may change daily

Publications

• The Value of Using Stochastic Mapping of Food Distribution Networks for Understanding Risks and Tracing Contaminant Pathways, Stephen H. Conrad, Walter E. Beyeler, Theresa J. Brown, Int. J. Critical Infrastructures, Vol. 8, Nos. 2/3, September 2012, 216-224.
• September 27, 2012 Review in Phys/Org: Probability maps help sniff out food contamination
• 4th Annual Conference on Next Generation Infrastructures, Norfolk VA, November 2011
• The Value of Using Stochastic Mapping of Food Distribution Networks for Understanding Risks and Tracing Contaminant Pathways, Presentation
• The Value of Utilizing Stochastic Mapping of Food Distribution Networks for Understanding Risks and Tracing Contaminant Pathways, SAND Report 2011-4203 C, June 2011
• Attack of the Killer Tomatoes: A Risk Assessment of a Directed Asymmetric Attack on the US Populace Using the Quick-Serve Restaurant Supply Chain, SH Conrad, PG Kaplan, and J Hardesty, June 2009
• Total Risk Assessment Methodology, Wyss, G., et al., December 2008
• White Paper on Food Defense Risk, PG Kaplan, October 2008