CASoS Engineering

Eric Vugrin

Photograph of Eric VugrinDr. Vugrin’s primary research interest is the development of analytical tools and methods for infrastructure analysis. His most recent research has focused on infrastructure resilience and adaptation to disasters, including hospital operations and their response to power outages, infectious disease outbreaks, and other extreme events. These efforts have provided research, operational, and policy guidance to the Veteran’s Health Administration, the Food and Drug Administration, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, and U.S. Department of Energy.

Other research efforts have focused on capability development for vulnerability, consequence, and resilience analysis of chemical supply chains, transportation networks, electrical power systems, and other infrastructure networks. These efforts have provided support and guidance to a number of U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) Infrastructure Protection, Science and Technology, and Policy programs. Of recent note, his technical expertise was requested for the development of a resilience certification program for commercial buildings. As part of the team that developed the Canary event detection software, Dr. Vugrin received a 2010 R&D 100 Award, recognizing Canary as one of the 100 most technologically significant new products of the year. Previous to his work in the area of infrastructure analysis, he performed risk analyses for complex systems as the technical lead for Total Systems Performance Assessment at Sandia for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, the world’s only certified, operating deep underground repository for nuclear waste.

Education

2004: Ph.D.     Mathematics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia

2000: M.S.      Mathematics, Texas Tech, Lubbock, Texas

1998: B.S.       Mathematics, Texas Tech, Lubbock, Texas

Professional Experience

2008-present: Resilience and Regulatory Effects Department, Sandia National Laboratories

2004-2008: Performance Assessment and Decision Analysis Department, Sandia National Laboratories

2000-2004: Graduate Research and Teaching Assistant, Interdisciplinary Center for Applied Mathematics, Virginia Tech

Funded Projects (Selected)

  • Economic Criticality of Chemical Facilities, DHS, Infrastructure Security and Compliance Division, 2008-2012, $10,750,000.
  • Chemical Supply Chains and Economic Resilience, DHS, Science and Technology Directorate, 2009-2010, $1,800,000.
  • Development of a Resilience STAR Certification Process, DHS, Office of Policy, 2011, $430,000.
  • Energy Security Assessment Tools, Sandia National Laboratories Laboratory Directed Research and Development, 2010-2014, $1,500,000.
  • Critical Infrastructure Protection, New Mexico Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, 2010-2011, $100,000.
  • Conceptual Model Development for Energy Security Assessment of Liquid Fuel Disruptions, Sandia National Laboratories Laboratory Directed Research and Development, 2010, $100,000.
  • Measurement & Optimization of Infrastructure Resilience, Sandia National Laboratories Laboratory Directed Research and Development, 2010, $150,000.
  • Quantitative Resilience Analysis through Control Design, Sandia National Laboratories Laboratory Directed Research and Development, 2009, $100,000.
  • Dynamic Prioritization for Infrastructure Restoration, National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center, 2009, $500,000.
  • As the technical lead for WIPP Performance Assessment, Dr. Vugrin led a team of approximately 25 staff that had an annual budget of ~$5.3M.

Publications (selected)

Vugrin ED, Verzi SJ, Finley PD, Turnquist MA, Griffin AR, Ricci KA, Wyte-Lake T. Modeling Evacuation of a Hospital without Electric Power. (2015) Prehospital and Disaster Medicine Vol. 30 / Issue 03 / June 2015, pp 279 – 287.

Vugrin ED, Verzi SJ, Finley PD, Turnquist MA, Griffin AR, Ricci KA, Wyte-Lake T. Modeling Hospitals’ Adaptive Capacity during a Loss of Infrastructure Services, (2015) Journal of Healthcare Engineering, 6(1): 105-140. March 2015.

Jennings BJ, Vugrin ED, Belasich DK. Resilience certification for commercial buildings: a study of stakeholder perspectives (2013) Environment Systems and Decisions, Special Issue: Sustainable Systems and Technologies; Linkov I, Lambert JH, Collier ZA, and Seager TP, Eds, Volume 33, Issue 2, June 2013

Vugrin ED, Turgeon J. Advancing Cyber Resilience Analysis with Performance-Based Metrics from Infrastructure Assessments, July 2012, International Journal of Secure Software Engineering Special Edition on Cybersecurity Scientific Validation. Also published as a 22-page chapter in Cyber Behavior: Concepts, Methodologies, Tools, and Applications, IGI Global. 2014

Turnquist MA, Vugrin ED. Design for Resilience in Infrastructure Distribution Networks. (2013) Environment Systems and Decisions, DOI 10.1007/s10669-012-9428-z. March 2013.

Vugrin ED, Camphouse RC. Infrastructure Resilience Assessment through Control Design. (2011) International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, vol. 7, no. 3. 2011.

Vugrin ED, Warren DE, Ehlen MA. A Resilience Assessment Framework for Infrastructure and Economic Systems: Quantitative and Qualitative Resilience Analysis of Petrochemical Supply Chains to a Hurricane. (2011) Process Safety Progress Journal, 30: 280–290. DOI 10.1002/prs.10437, March 2011

Other Notable Publications

Contributing author for “Climate Change and Infrastructure, Urban System, and Vulnerabilities,” technical chapter for the 2013 National Climate Assessment.

Invited essay: Vugrin ED, Warren D, Brown N, Turnquist M. (2010). “On the Inclusion of Recovery Processes and Costs in Resilience Assessments.” The Risk Communicator: Newsletter for the Security and Risk Management Association.

Conference Proceedings (selected)

Vugrin ED, Stamber KL, Baca M, Kao G, Lev H, Mitchell M, Ramirez R, Welch K. (2012). “A Mission Resilience Assessment Methodology for Infrastructure Disruptions,” Proceedings of the 2012 IEEE International Carnahan Conference on Security Technology, Boston, MA, October 15-18, 2012.

Stamber KL, Vugrin ED, Ehlen MA, Sun AC, Warren DE, Welk ME. (2010). “Consequence and Resilience Modeling for Chemical Supply Chains,” Proceedings of 2010 MODSIM World Conference and Expo, Hampton Roads, VA, October 13-15, 2010.

Vugrin ED, Camphouse RC. (2010). “Optimization of Infrastructure Resilience through Feedback Control Design,” Proceedings of TISP Annual Infrastructure and Regional Resilience 2010 Conference, Grapevine, TX, Dec 7-9, 2010.

Warren DE, and Vugrin ED. (2010). “Assessment Of The Resilience Of Chemical Supply Chains Following Hurricane Ike,” Proceedings of TISP Annual Infrastructure and Regional Resilience 2010 Conference, Grapevine, TX, Dec 7-9, 2010.

Warren DE, Vargas VN, Smith BJ, Vugrin ED. (2010). “An Input-Output Procedure for Calculating Economy-Wide Economic Impacts in Supply Chains Using Homeland Security Consequence Analysis Tools”, Proceedings of the 57th North American Regional Science Association International (RSAI) Conference, Denver, CO, November 10-13, 2010.

Vugrin ED, Warren DE, Ehlen MA. (2010). “A Resilience Assessment Framework for Infrastructure and Economic Systems: Quantitative and Qualitative Resilience Analysis of Petrochemical Supply Chains to a Hurricane,” Proceedings of the 6th Global Congress on Process Safety, San Antonio, TX, March 22-24, 2010.

Warren DE, Vugrin ED, Ehlen MA. (2010).  “Overcoming Challenges in Critical Infrastructure Resilience Analysis: A New Framework for Resilience Assessments,” Proceedings of the Workshop on Grand Challenges in Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis for Homeland Security (MSAHS-2010), Washington, D.C., March 17, 2010.

Vugrin ED, Camphouse RC, Downes P, Ehlen MA, Warren DE. (2009). “Measurement of System Resilience: Application to Chemical Supply Chains,” Proceedings of SIAM Conference on Mathematics for Industry: Challenges and Frontiers, San Francisco, CA, October 9-10, 2009.

Vugrin ED, McKenna SA, Hart D. (2009). “Trajectory Clustering Approach for Reducing Water Quality Event False Alarms,” Proceedings of the 2009 World Environmental & Water Resources Congress, Kansas City, Missouri, May 16-21, 2009.

Nemer MB, Dunagan SC, Vugrin ED. (2008). “Prioritization of Technical Contact and Impact Assessment for Performance Assessment at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant,” Proceedings of the 2008 Waste Management Conference, Phoenix, AZ, February 24-28, 2008.

Technical Reports

Vugrin ED, Turnquist MA. “Design for Resilience in Infrastructure Distribution Networks.” (2012) Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM.

Vugrin ED, Belasich D, Jones B, Sanyal P, Welk M. (2012). “Enhanced Economic Criticality Modeling and Analysis,” technical report for DHS Infrastructure Security Compliance Division, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM.

Vugrin ED, Aamir M, Deng H, Kinnan M, Outkin A, Pike D, Sanyal P, Smith B, Vargas V, Welk W. (2012) “Case Studies of Economic Factors Affecting Economic Criticality Assessments and Data Development,” technical report for DHS Infrastructure Security Compliance Division, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM.

Vugrin ED, Turnquist MA, Brown NJK. (2011). “Optimal Recovery Sequencing for Resilience Assessment of Transportation Networks”, SAND2012-6050, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM.

Vugrin ED, McKenna SA. (2011). “Numerical Modeling of Cooling Water Filtration Systems,” technical report submitted to DOE, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM.

Vugrin ED, Hardesty J, Jennings B, Sanyal P. (2011). “A Review of Building Certification Programs,” technical report submitted to DHS Office of Policy, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM.

Vugrin ED, Deng H, Jones B, Loose V, Mitchell M, Outkin A, Smith B, Vargas V, Warren D. (2011). “Chemical Facility Economic Criticality Project: 2010 Progress Report,” technical report for DHS Infrastructure Security Compliance Division, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM.

Vugrin ED, Belasich D, Hardesty J, Jennings B, Sanyal P. (2011). “Resilience STAR Program: Interviews, Cost-Benefit Analysis, and Program Recommendations,” technical report submitted to DHS Office of Policy, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM.

Brown TJ, Kelic A, Stamber KL, Brodsky NS, Vugrin ED, Corbet TF, Fogleman W, O’Connor S, “Earthquake Warning System for Infrastructures – A Scoping Analysis,” white paper developed for L. Napolitano, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM.

Vugrin ED, Warren DE, Aamir MS, Sun AC. (2009). “Chemical Facility Economic Criticality Project: Option Phase 1 Interim Progress Report”, technical report for DHS Infrastructure Security Compliance Division, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM.

Vugrin ED, Downes PS, Eidson ED, Warren DE, Welk ME, Ehlen MA. (2010). “Comprehensive Chemical Sector National and Supply Chain Economic Study: Interim Progress Report”, technical report for DHS Science and Technology Directorate, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM.

Vugrin ED, Aamir MS, Smith B, Vargas V. (2010). “Chemical Facility Economic Criticality Project: Option Phase 1 End-of-Year Progress Report”, technical report for DHS Infrastructure Security Compliance Division, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM.

Warren DE, Vugrin ED. (2010). “Chemical Supply Chain and Resilience Project: Application of Resilience Assessment Framework to a Historical Case Study,” technical report for DHS Science and Technology Directorate, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM.

Vugrin ED, Turnquist MA, Brown NJK. (2010). “Optimal Recovery Sequencing for Critical Infrastructure Resilience Assessment,” SAND Report 2010-6237, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM.

Stamber KL, Vugrin ED, Detry R, Kao GK, Le HD, Quezada SA, Shirah D, Wachtel A, Welch KM. (2010). “Conceptual Model Development for Energy Security Assessment of Liquid Fuel Disruptions,” SAND Report 2010-6239, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM.

Murray R, Haxton T, McKenna SA, Hart DB, Klise K, Koch M, Vugrin ED, Martin S, Wilson M, Cruz V, Cutler L, “Water Quality Event Detection Systems for Drinking Water Contamination Warning Systems: Development, Testing, and Application of CANARY,” National Homeland Security Research Center Office Of Research And Development U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Cincinnati, OH , May 2010.

Vugrin ED, Camphouse RC, Sunderland D. (2009). “Quantitative Resilience Analysis through Control Design,” SAND Report 2009-5957, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM.

Beyeler WE, Corbet TF, Ellison J, Taylor R, Vugrin ED. (2009). “Impacts of a New Madrid Seismic Zone Event on the North American Natural Gas Sector,” technical report for DHS Office of Infrastructure Protection, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM.

Kelic A, Loose V, Vargas V, Vugrin ED. (2009). “Energy and Water Sector Policy Strategies for Drought Mitigation,” Sandia National Laboratories Report, Albuquerque, NM.

Vugrin ED, Aamir MS, Downes PS, Ehlen MA, Loose V, Vargas V, Warren DE. (2009). “A Framework for Assessing the Economic Criticality of Chemical Facilities,” technical report for DHS Infrastructure Security Compliance Division, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM.

Vugrin ED, Aamir MS, Downes PS, Ehlen MA, Loose V, Vargas V, Warren DE. (2009). “Economic Criticality of Chemical Facilities: Results of Test Case Applications,” technical report for DHS Infrastructure Security Compliance Division, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM.

Downes PS, Ehlen MA, Mackey G, Vugrin ED, Warren DE, Welk M. (2009). “Chemical Supply Chain and Resilience Project: 2009 Interim Report,” technical report for DHS Science and Technology Directorate, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM.

Vugrin ED, Aamir MS, Aguilar R. (2009). “A Dynamic Prioritization Methodology for Infrastructure Restoration: Initial Development Efforts and Test Case”, technical report for DHS Office of Infrastructure Protection, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM.