Application Background: ConGestive Failure in the Electric Power Grid

• Goal /Aspiration for Project
• Develop modeling and analysis capability for the U.S. electric power grid that will allow us to identify system conditions and perturbations that could lead to congestion in transmission, increasing the risk of regional power disruptions. Evaluate how congestion could be caused by deliberate attack or random failures and how controls influence the likelihood of congestion.
• Approach/Methods/Models
• Develop abstract, network model of one region of the U.S. power grid and conduct experiments to identify conditions that increase the likelihood of congestion.
• Polynet
• Status, Accomplishments and Next Steps
• Completed development of Loki Power, an abstract representation of the Western Electric Coordinating Council (WECC) high-voltage electric power transmission network, in 2004.
• For the stylized electric power grid, our initial simulations demonstrate that the addition of geographically unrestricted random transactions can eventually push a grid to cascading failure, thus supporting the hypothesis that actions of unrestrained power markets (without proper security coordination on market actions) can undermine large scale system stability.
• We also find that network topology greatly influences system robustness. Homogeneous networks that are "fish-net" like can withstand many more transaction perturbations before cascading than can scale-free networks. Interestingly, when the homogeneous network finally cascades, it tends to fail in its entirety, while the scale-free tends to compartmentalize failure and thus leads to smaller, more restricted outages.
• Other applications for this capability include design of network structures or controls that reduce the probability of congestion and limit the extent and duration of cascades; evaluation of robustness of new electric power grid topologies and characteristics (distributed generation, increased use of renewable power, increasing stored power); and evaluation of the robustness of other types of systems (financial, communication, transportation fuels, distribution networks).
• CASoS Goals: General Capabilities
• Loki-Power
• Network topology and conditions effect on congestion risk.
• CASoS Goals: Other Potential Applications
• Design transaction treaties to reduce the risk of unintended, negative or counter-productive outcomes (e.g., use to evaluate carbon trading or monetary policy options). Evaluate the risks of loss of confidence in other systems and identify risk mitigation strategies that are robust to uncertainty.
• Acknowledgements
• This application was funded by the Department of Homeland Security through the NISAC program.