Application Background: Climate Security Impacts

• Goal /Aspiration for Project
• Identify key uncertainties and dynamics in order to design and develop a CASoS engineering approach for reducing climate risks
• Approach/Methods/Models
• Evaluate conceptual model design for linked/coupled hydrologic and economic models to develop a scientific-based risk analysis approach that accounts for the full range of potential outcomes and explicitly includes uncertainty
• Design validation strategy
• Identify modeling needs
• Status, Accomplishments and Next Steps
• Completed review of existing capabilities and proposed an approach that starts with an evaluation of global changes, then evaluates regional vulnerabilities to the changes and focuses on the impacts that could propagate to other regions and how the impacts could propagate
• Recommended a decision validation (robust to uncertainty) strategy due to the nature of the problem and the timeframe for decision making relative to the timeframe for conducting field experiments.
• Working with climate, environmental, economic and risk modeling and analysis groups to develop proposals for developing the CASoS models and analysis capabilities needed to engineer climate risk reduction approach.
• CASoS Goals: General Capabilities
• Enhanced the methodology for CASoS modeling validation
• Began conceptual model development for evaluating climate risks using a CASoS approach
• CASoS Goals: Other Potential Applications
• Global geopolitical condition impacts on US national security (conceptual model development)
• CASoS analysis framework
• Acknowledgements
• Sandia National Laboratories Laboratory Directed Research and Development
• George Backus and John Mitchiner at Sandia National Laboratories for guidance and leadership on developing climate risk analysis capability