Application: Climate Security Impacts

Changes in climate can lead to instabilities in physical and economic systems, particularly in regions with marginal resources. The current generation of climate impact analyses provides estimates of the economic cost of climate change for a limited set of climate scenarios that account for a small subset of the dynamics and uncertainties. To better understand the risk to national security, the next generation of risk assessment models must represent global stresses, population vulnerability to those stresses, and the uncertainty in population responses and outcomes that could have a significant impact on U.S. national security.

Background

Publications

• Uncertainty Quantification and Validation of Combined Hydrological and Macroeconomic Analyses, Theresa J. Brown, M. J. Parks, J. Hernandez, B. J. Jennings, P. G. Kaplan, and S. H. Conrad, Sandia National Laboratories Report, September 2010. (2010-6266)