Application: Behavioral Impacts on Markets and Infrastructures

Large-scale incidents such as natural disasters and terrorist attacks have direct consequences on the economy, critical infrastructure and governance. These incidents have two major types of consequences: directly observable (physical, mission, human and economic) and indirectly observable (psychological). Psychological consequences include fear-induced avoidance behavior (avoidance of an activity due to fear). The power of these behavioral choices to impact national systems and infrastructures must be understood to design policy and processes that mitigate consequences. This application measures psychological consequences by focusing on observable behavioral changes, such as changes in demand, actions qualitatively derived from public sources and sentiment changes measured by surveys.

Background

Publications

• 30th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, St. Gallen, Switzerland, July 2012

  • Model of the Driving Forces for Post-Incident, Fear-Induced Consumer Avoidance Behaviors, Munaf S. Aamir, Vanessa Vargas, July 2012

• Condition-dependent maladaptive behavior scoping study (literature review and data assimilation for behavioral responses to terrorist attacks and natural disasters), NISAC/DHS Project Report (2012)