Curbing the significant adverse consequences of tobacco use is one of the most important public health goals of our time.
The tobacco products system is a composed of highly connected and interdependent subsystems, comprising industry, consumers, government, health care, and both public and government interest groups. These subsystems are connected by complex technical, social and economic ties. The system as a whole exhibits properties associated with complex adaptive system behavior.
Initiated in May 2010, this work is part of a 5-year program. Definition of a conceptual model of the components of tobacco product manufacture, marketing, and use has led to development of a computational framework for analyzing impacts of changes in tobacco use on population health over long periods of time. This includes a theoretical and computational framework for analyzing individual tobacco-use behaviors as influenced by a social network. Uncertainty quantification techniques and sensitivity analyses are used to assess the robustness of modeling results.