Advanced Modeling & Techniques Investigation (AMTI)
The AMTI effort is a long-term investment in understanding critical infrastructures and their interdependencies. Our purpose is to identify and develop theories, methods, and analytical tools that are useful for understanding the structure, function, and evolution of complex interdependent critical infrastructures.
Critical Infrastructures are formed by a large number of components that interact within complex networks. As a rule, infrastructures contain strong feedbacks either explicitly through the action of hardware/software control, or implicitly through the action/reaction of people. Individual infrastructures influence others and grow, adapt, and thus evolve in response to their multifaceted physical, economic, cultural, and political environments.
Simply put, critical infrastructures are complex adaptive systems.
Complexity makes understanding and modeling critical infrastructures difficult. Fortunately, there has been a great deal of basic research over the past few years focused on understanding complex adaptive systems and developing theories to explain how they behave under stress. This perspective may reveal strategies to make critical infrastructures more robust by strengthening components, or formulating long range policies whereby robustness evolves over time.
AMTI has developed the Loki toolkit which allows for quick formulation and application of network models of complex systems. The Loki toolkit is a set of components that can be selected, specialized, and combined to create models of diverse networks including power systems, pipelines, social networks, and financial networks, as well as interactions across these different networks. The analysis and visualization resources provided by Loki, such as the network displays and statistical summaries illustrated here, allow us to rapidly gain insight into the behavior of networked systems.
Some Ongoing Investigations
The spread of an infectious disease such as influenza through a population depends on the network structure of the contacts among individuals. These contacts adapt to the health of individuals and in response to policies for vaccination, social-distancing, or quarantine. AMTI’s recent analyses demonstrate the potential of selective social-distancing to significantly delay the spread of pandemic influenza.
The electric power system is increasingly driven by competitive power markets, and the resulting transactions impose a new kind of stress on our legacy transmission system. AMTI is studying the interactions between the physical transmission network and the dynamic network of contractual obligations that form to satisfy demand, and the implications of these interactions for system resiliency.
Large banks and other financial institutions exchange more than $1 trillion dollars per day through wholesale payment systems. Implicit cooperation among participants is essential for their reliable operation. AMTI is studying the development of coordination among participants in large-value payment systems, and how behavior adapted under normal conditions can mitigate or amplify the effects of disruption.
This initial investigation has evolved into the Complex Adaptive System of Systems (CASoS) Engineering Initiative. An overview poster of this evolution can be downloaded: Low resolution (4 MB), or Higher resolution (11 MB).
- Health Outcomes and Costs of Community Mitigation Strategies for an Influenza Pandemic in the United States, Daniella J. Perlroth, Robert J. Glass, Victoria J. Davey, Daniel Cannon, Alan M. Garber, and Douglas K. Owens, Clinical Infectious Diseases, Containing a US Influenza Pandemic • CID 2010:50 (15 January)
- Congestion and Cascades in Interdependent Payment Systems, Fabian Renault, Walter E. Beyeler, Robert J. Glass, Kimmo Soramaki, and Morten L. Bech, SAND 2009-2175J, March 2009
- A General Engineering Framework for the Definition, Design, Testing and Actualization of Solutions within Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems (CASoS) with Application to the Global Energy System (GES), Robert J. Glass, Arlo L. Ames, Walter E. Beyeler, Bernard Zak, David A. Schoenwald, Sean A. McKenna, Stephen H. Conrad , S. Louise Maffitt, Sandia National Laboratories SAND 2008-7952, December 2008
- Sandia National Laboratories: A Roadmap for the Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems CASoS) Engineering Initiative, Robert J. Glass, Arlo L. Ames, William A. Stubblefield, Stephen H. Conrad, S. Louise Maffitt, Leonard A. Malczynski, David G. Wilson, Jeffery J. Carlson, George A. Backus, Mark A. Ehlen, Keith B. Vanderveen, and Dennis Engi, Sandia National Laboratories SAND 2008-4651, September 2008
- Robust Design of Community Mitigation for Pandemic Influenza: A Systematic Examination of Proposed U.S. Guidance, Victoria J. Davey, Robert J. Glass, H. Jason Min, Walter E. Beyeler, Laura M. Glass, PLoS ONE 3(7): e2606 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0002606
- Social contact networks for the spread of pandemic influenza in children and teenagers, Laura M. Glass, Robert J. Glass, BMC Public Health, 8:61, doi:10.1186/1471-2458-8-61, February 14, 2008
- Rescinding Community Mitigation Strategies in an Influenza Pandemic (2007-4635 J), Victoria J. Davey, Robert J. Glass, Emerging Infectious Diseases, Volume 14, Number 3, March 2008.
- The Payments System and the Market of Interbank Funds, Morten L. Bech, Walter E. Beyeler, Robert J. Glass, and Kimmo Soramäki, Part 4 in New Directions for Understanding Systemic Risk, Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 2007, .
- New Approaches for Payment System Simulation Research, Kimmo Soramäki, Walter E. Beyeler, Morten Bech, and Robert J. Glass in: Simulation studies of liquidity needs, risks and efficiency in payment networks, Proceedings from the Bank of Finland Payment and Settlement System Seminars 2005-2006, Harry Leinonen ed., (Bank of Finland Studies E:39/2007)
- Congestion and cascades in payment systems (2007-7271), Walter E. Beyeler, Robert J. Glass, Morten Bech and Kimmo Soramäki, Physica A, 15 Oct. 2007; v.384, no.2, p.693-718, accepted May 2007 (also available from Elsevier B.V. /Physica A)
- The Topology of Interbank Payment Flows, Kimmo Soramaki, Morten L. Bech, Jeffrey Arnold, Robert J. Glass, Walter E. Beyeler, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, June 2007; vol.379, no.1, p.317-33.(also available from Elsevier B.V. /Physica A)
- Design of Community Containment for Pandemic Influenza with Loki-Infect (2007-1184 P), Robert J. Glass, Jason Min, Walter E. Beyeler, Laura Glass, Sandia National Laboratories SAND report, January 2007
- Targeted Social Distancing Design for Pandemic Influenza, Robert J. Glass, Laura M. Glass, Walter E. Beyeler, H. Jason Min, CDC Journal, Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol 12, #14, November 2006
- Congestion and Cascades in Payment Systems, Walter E. Beyeler, Robert J. Glass, Morten L. Bech, Kimmo Soramaki, Federal Reserve Board of New York Staff report, July 2006
- The Topology of Interbank Payment Flows (2006-1984 J), Soramäki, K, ML Bech, J Arnold, RJ Glass, and WE Beyeler, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 243, March 2006
- Local Mitigation Strategies for Pandemic Influenza (2005-7955 J), Robert J. Glass, Laura M. Glass, Walter E. Beyeler
- Sensitivity of the resilience of congested random networks to rolloff and offset in truncated power-law degree distributions (2005-5926 J), LaViolette, R., W. E. Beyeler, R. J. Glass, K. L. Stamber, and H. Link. Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Vol 368, Issue 1, 1 August 2006, pp 287-293.
- Advanced Simulation for Analysis of Critical Infrastructure: Abstract Cascades, the Electric power grid, and Fedwire (2004-4239), Robert J. Glass, Walt E. Beyeler, and Kevin L. Stamber
- Defining Research and Development Directions for Modeling and Simulation of Complex, Interdependent Adaptive Infrastructures (2003-1778), Robert J Glass, Walter E Beyeler, Stephen H Conrad, Nancy S Brodsky, Paul G Kaplan, and Theresa J Brown
Conference Papers and Presentations
University of New Mexico, Seminar for Computer Science class, April 21, 2010
- Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems (CASoS) Engineering, RJ Glass, JM Linebarger, A Ames, TJ Brown, WE Beyeler, et al.
University of Pittsburgh, December 14, 2009
Twenty-seventh International System Dynamics Conference. July 26-30, 2009
- Paper: Pandemic Influenza and Complex Adaptive System of Systems (CASoS) Engineering, RJ Glass
- Presentation: Pandemic Influenza and Complex Adaptive System of Systems (CASoS) Engineering, RJ Glass
Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Economic Roundtable, 17 April 2009
Military Operations Research Society (MORS) Workshop on Risk-Informed Decision Making, April 13-16, 2009
Global Finance as a Complex Adaptive System, WE Beyeler
National Science Foundation (NSF) Workshop "Opportunities and Challenges in Uncertainty Quantification for Complex Interacting Systems." 13 April 2009
- Wrangling with Uncertainty in Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems (CASoS) Engineering or “Why CASoS Engineering is both an Opportunity and Challenge for Uncertainty Quantification,” RJ Glass with A Ames, WE Beyeler, and others at Sandia National Laboratories
- Megacities as Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems (CASoS), NSF-GMU. RJ Glass
Workshop on Megacities, University of Southern California, 11 November 2008
- Performance and Resilience to liquidity disruptions in interdependent RTGS payment systems (paper), F. Renault, WE Beyeler, RJ Glass, K. Soramäki and ML Bech
- Performance and Resilience to liquidity disruptions in interdependent RTGS payment systems (presentation), F. Renault, WE Beyeler, RJ Glass, K. Soramäki and ML Bech
University of Southern California, Viterbi School of Engineering, invited seminar, 23 January 2008
- Modeling Critical Infrastructures with Networked Agent-based Approaches, RJ Glass and WE Beyeler (also presented at Lawrence Livermore, March 2008)
- Congestion and Cascades in Coupled Payment Systems (paper), F. Renault, WE Beyeler, RJ Glass, K. Soramäki and ML Bech
- Congestion and Cascades in Coupled Payment Systems (presentation), F. Renault, WE Beyeler, RJ Glass, K. Soramäki and ML Bech
International Society of Dynamic Games Workshop, Rabat, Morocco September 2007
- Effect of Learning and Market Structure on Price Level and Volatility in a Simple Market, WE Beyeler, K Soramäki and RJ Glass
Bank of Finland 5th Payment and Settlement Simulation Seminar and Workshop. Helsinki, Finland, August 2007
- Congestion and Cascades in Coupled Payment Systems, WE Beyeler, RJ Glass
Institute of Medicine of the National Academies: Modeling Community Containment, Washington DC, October 2006
- Design of Community Containment for Pandemic Influenza (2006-6728 C), RJ Glass, HJ Min, WE Beyeler, LM Glass
Bank of Finland 4th Payment and Settlement Simulation Seminar and Workshop, Helsinki, Finland, August 2006
- Network Topology and Payment System Resilience - first results, K Soramaki, WE Beyeler, ML Bech, RJ Glass
- Congestion and Cascades in Payment Systems, WE Beyeler, K Soramaki, ML Bech, RJ Glass
The National Academy of Sciences of the National Academies/ The Federal Reserve Bank of New York: New Directions for Understanding Systemic Risk, New York City, May 2006
- Contagion, Cascades and Disruptions to the Interbank Payment System (2005-4915 C), ML Bech, WE Beyeler, RJ Glass, K Soramaki
Bank of Finland 3rd Payment and Settlement Simulation Seminar and Workshop, Helsinki, Finland, August 2005
- Network relationships and network models in payment systems, K Soramaki, ML Bech, J Arnold, WE Beyeler, RJ Glass
- Modeling Banks' Payment Submittal Decisions, WE Beyeler, K Soramaki, ML Bech, RJ Glass
- Simulation and Analysis of Cascading Failure in Critical Infrastructure, RJ Glass, WE Beyeler, K Soramaki, ML Bech, J Arnold
Working Together: R&D Partnerships in Homeland Security Conference, May 2005
NISAC Demonstration of Capabilities, Portland, Oregon and Seattle, Washington Appril-May 2003
- Complexity Science: Implications for Critical Infrastructures, RJ Glass, WE Beyeler, SH Conrad, PG Kaplan, TJ Brown