Economic Criticality: Economic Impacts of Supply Chain Disruptions

Due to the interdependencies among modern infrastructure systems, localized disruptive events can affect supply chains causing consequences that potentially spread across multiple systems with national impacts. The goal of this work is to determine national economic consequences (at a macroeconomic level) resulting from relatively localized (i.e., microeconomic) supply chain disruptions within larger systems.

Publications

2010 Annual North American Meetings of the Regional Science Association International (RSAI), Denver, CO, November 2010

• An Input-Output Procedure for Calculating Economy-Wide Economic Impacts in Supply Chains Using Homeland Security Consequence Analysis Tools, Drake E. Warren, Vanessa N. Vargas, Verne W. Loose, Braeton J. Smith, and Eric D. Vugrin (2010-8473)

Background

• Challenges
• The spatial differences between disruption initiation and consequence measurement generate modeling and data challenges. Frequently, data required for analysis in both of these domains are unavailable or inconsistent. Applicable macro- and micro-economic models exist, but bridging the two modeling scales presents challenges.
• Goal/Aspiration for Project:
• Develop the capability to:
• facilitate estimation of national economic impacts of supply-chain disruptions
• account for both upstream and downstream impacts that result from supply-chain disruptions
• integrate with existing supply-chain models (national in scope, easily understood)
• model systems with a minimum of aggregation and short run-time
• Status, Accomplishments, and Next Steps
• Accomplishments: Development of a functional input-output methodology/software that can be implemented in conjunction with sets of supply-chain models to calculate economy-wide impacts from disruptions to supply chains
• Next Steps: Sensitivity analyses to evaluate how uncertainty in input parameters affects model outputs